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Argument: China is unlikely to denuclearize

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Supporting evidence

  • Stephen M. Younger, Associate Laboratory Director for Nuclear Weapons Los Alamos National Laboratory. "Nuclear Weapons in the Twenty-First Century". June 27th, 2000 - "China — China’s international aims are in development, but their long stated intention to 'reunify' Taiwan into the mainland and their territorial moves in the South China Sea indicate that they plan to play a broader role on the international stage. China has a small nuclear arsenal but one capable of inflicting unacceptable damage on American territory and interests. It is unclear at present what, if any, impact alleged Chinese nuclear espionage will have on the modernization of its nuclear arsenal. However, it is worth noting that China has several nuclear weapons systems in the advanced development stage including a new cruise missile, which presumably can carry a nuclear warhead, and new land-launched and sea-launched ballistic missiles. Road mobile nuclear capable missiles add a degree of survivability to China’s limited nuclear arsenal. The desire to develop an operational ballistic missile submarine is another suggestion that China is concerned about the survivability of its nuclear forces and perhaps is a comment on its future goals of power projection outside of the immediate Pacific area."

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